Global Economic Risk Map
OECD Economic Indicators 2026-02
ContractionExpansion
Lite Indicator: OECD countries use normalised confidence indicators (CLI, BCI, or CCI) with 100 = long-term trend. Non-OECD countries use World Bank GDP growth converted to the same scale. Countries with a Full Dashboard marker have comprehensive 18-indicator crash probability analysis; click on them to view the full report.
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Country Data
| Country | Value | Risk â–¼ | Status | Source | Dashboard |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Caledonia | 86.5 | 100 | High Contraction Risk | GDP | Lite |
| Sudan | 86.04 | 100 | High Contraction Risk | GDP | Lite |
| Timor-Leste | 90.9 | 100 | High Contraction Risk | GDP | Lite |
| Haiti | 95.83 | 91.7 | High Contraction Risk | GDP | Lite |
| Estonia | 96.79 | 82.1 | High Contraction Risk | BCI | Lite |
| Botswana | 97.01 | 79.9 | Contraction Risk | GDP | Lite |
| Kuwait | 97.44 | 75.6 | Contraction Risk | GDP | Lite |
| Denmark | 97.78 | 72.2 | Contraction Risk | BCI | Lite |
| Greenland | 97.78 | 72.2 | Contraction Risk | BCI | Lite |
| Ecuador | 98 | 70 | Contraction Risk | GDP | Lite |
| Austria | 98.39 | 66.1 | Contraction Risk | BCI | Lite |
| Iraq | 98.45 | 65.5 | Contraction Risk | GDP | Lite |
| Hungary | 98.51 | 64.9 | Contraction Risk | BCI | Lite |
| China | 98.54 | 64.6 | Contraction Risk | CLI | Lite |
| Taiwan | 98.54 | 64.6 | Contraction Risk | CLI | Lite |
| Argentina | 98.66 | 63.4 | Contraction Risk | GDP | Lite |
| Czech Republic | 98.86 | 61.4 | Contraction Risk | BCI | Lite |
| Luxembourg | 98.88 | 61.2 | Contraction Risk | BCI | Lite |
| Slovenia | 98.88 | 61.2 | Contraction Risk | BCI | Lite |
| Bolivia | 98.88 | 61.2 | Contraction Risk | GDP | Lite |
| Cuba | 98.94 | 60.6 | Contraction Risk | GDP | Lite |
| Iceland | 99.03 | 59.7 | Slowing | GDP | Lite |
| Myanmar | 99.03 | 59.7 | Slowing | GDP | Lite |
| Belgium | 99.08 | 59.2 | Slowing | BCI | Lite |
| Slovakia | 99.08 | 59.2 | Slowing | BCI | Lite |
| Colombia | 99.41 | 55.9 | Slowing | BCI | Lite |
| Jamaica | 99.46 | 55.4 | Slowing | GDP | Lite |
| Sweden | 99.79 | 52.1 | Slowing | BCI | Lite |
| Poland | 99.89 | 51.1 | Slowing | BCI | Lite |
| Norway | 99.98 | 50.2 | Slowing | BCI | Lite |
| Svalbard | 99.98 | 50.2 | Slowing | BCI | Lite |
| Moldova | 100.1 | 49 | Stable | GDP | Lite |
| Japan | 100.12 | 48.8 | Stable | CLI | Full |
| Romania | 100.12 | 48.8 | Stable | BCI | Lite |
| Portugal | 100.16 | 48.4 | Stable | BCI | Lite |
| Ireland | 100.2 | 48 | Stable | BCI | Lite |
| Saint Kitts and Nevis | 100.31 | 46.9 | Stable | GDP | Lite |
| Finland | 100.33 | 46.7 | Stable | BCI | Lite |
| Ã…land Islands | 100.33 | 46.7 | Stable | BCI | Lite |
| Croatia | 100.39 | 46.1 | Stable | BCI | Lite |
| Switzerland | 100.42 | 45.8 | Stable | BCI | Lite |
| Chile | 100.54 | 44.6 | Stable | BCI | Lite |
| Netherlands | 100.63 | 43.7 | Stable | BCI | Lite |
| Bulgaria | 100.63 | 43.7 | Stable | BCI | Lite |
| Sint Maarten | 100.63 | 43.7 | Stable | BCI | Lite |
| Caribbean Netherlands | 100.63 | 43.7 | Stable | BCI | Lite |
| Micronesia | 100.72 | 42.8 | Stable | GDP | Lite |
| Australia | 100.75 | 42.5 | Stable | CLI | Full |
| Faroe Islands | 100.84 | 41.6 | Stable | GDP | Lite |
| United States | 100.85 | 41.5 | Stable | CLI | Full |
| Guam | 100.85 | 41.5 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| American Samoa | 100.85 | 41.5 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| US Virgin Islands | 100.85 | 41.5 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Equatorial Guinea | 100.91 | 40.9 | Stable | GDP | Lite |
| Vanuatu | 100.94 | 40.6 | Stable | GDP | Lite |
| Turkey | 100.96 | 40.4 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| South Africa | 101.01 | 39.9 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Latvia | 101.09 | 39.1 | Stable | BCI | Lite |
| São Tomé and PrÃncipe | 101.1 | 39 | Stable | GDP | Lite |
| Indonesia | 101.15 | 38.5 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| United Kingdom | 101.22 | 37.8 | Stable | CLI | Full |
| Falkland Islands | 101.22 | 37.8 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Gibraltar | 101.22 | 37.8 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Saint Helena | 101.22 | 37.8 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Turks & Caicos | 101.22 | 37.8 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| British Virgin Islands | 101.22 | 37.8 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| British Indian Ocean Territory | 101.22 | 37.8 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Anguilla | 101.22 | 37.8 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Montserrat | 101.22 | 37.8 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Cayman Islands | 101.22 | 37.8 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Bermuda | 101.22 | 37.8 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Costa Rica | 101.3 | 37 | Stable | BCI | Lite |
| France | 101.3 | 37 | Stable | CLI | Full |
| French Guiana | 101.3 | 37 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Guadeloupe | 101.3 | 37 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Martinique | 101.3 | 37 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Réunion | 101.3 | 37 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Mayotte | 101.3 | 37 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Saint Pierre & Miquelon | 101.3 | 37 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Wallis & Futuna | 101.3 | 37 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| French Polynesia | 101.3 | 37 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| French Southern Territories | 101.3 | 37 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Nauru | 101.39 | 36.1 | Stable | GDP | Lite |
| Italy | 101.4 | 36 | Stable | CLI | Full |
| Central African Republic | 101.5 | 35 | Stable | GDP | Lite |
| Spain | 101.58 | 34.2 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Germany | 101.59 | 34.1 | Stable | CLI | Full |
| Tunisia | 101.61 | 33.9 | Stable | GDP | Lite |
| Oman | 101.63 | 33.7 | Stable | GDP | Lite |
| Lithuania | 101.67 | 33.3 | Stable | BCI | Lite |
| Malawi | 101.67 | 33.3 | Stable | GDP | Lite |
| Suriname | 101.72 | 32.8 | Stable | GDP | Lite |
| Zimbabwe | 101.74 | 32.6 | Stable | GDP | Lite |
| India | 101.9 | 31 | Stable | CLI | Lite |
| Libya | 101.9 | 31 | Stable | GDP | Lite |
| Canada | 101.95 | 30.5 | Stable | CLI | Full |
| Saudi Arabia | 102 | 30 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Greece | 102.01 | 29.9 | Expansion | BCI | Lite |
| Dominica | 102.05 | 29.5 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| South Korea | 102.15 | 28.5 | Expansion | CLI | Lite |
| Mozambique | 102.15 | 28.5 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Qatar | 102.36 | 26.4 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Egypt | 102.4 | 26 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Israel | 102.48 | 25.2 | Expansion | BCI | Lite |
| Barbados | 102.48 | 25.2 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Jordan | 102.49 | 25.1 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Hong Kong | 102.5 | 25 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Marshall Islands | 102.5 | 25 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 102.51 | 24.9 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Thailand | 102.54 | 24.6 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Congo | 102.58 | 24.2 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Bahrain | 102.6 | 24 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| El Salvador | 102.6 | 24 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Mexico | 102.72 | 22.8 | Expansion | CLI | Lite |
| Panama | 102.75 | 22.5 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Brazil | 102.81 | 21.9 | Expansion | CLI | Lite |
| Lesotho | 102.85 | 21.5 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Ukraine | 102.91 | 20.9 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 102.97 | 20.3 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Eswatini | 102.97 | 20.3 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| North Macedonia | 102.99 | 20.1 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Solomon Islands | 103 | 20 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Pakistan | 103.05 | 19.5 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Uruguay | 103.11 | 18.9 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Montenegro | 103.16 | 18.4 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Puerto Rico | 103.18 | 18.2 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Peru | 103.3 | 17 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Comoros | 103.34 | 16.6 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Andorra | 103.37 | 16.3 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Bahamas | 103.38 | 16.2 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Gabon | 103.39 | 16.1 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| New Zealand | 103.43 | 15.7 | Expansion | BCI | Lite |
| Seychelles | 103.47 | 15.3 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Maldives | 103.49 | 15.1 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Belize | 103.5 | 15 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Cameroon | 103.52 | 14.8 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Fiji | 103.53 | 14.7 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Honduras | 103.55 | 14.5 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Nicaragua | 103.59 | 14.1 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Guatemala | 103.65 | 13.5 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 103.66 | 13.4 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Iran | 103.66 | 13.4 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Nepal | 103.67 | 13.3 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Algeria | 103.7 | 13 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Namibia | 103.71 | 12.9 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Morocco | 103.79 | 12.1 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Western Sahara | 103.79 | 12.1 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Papua New Guinea | 103.8 | 12 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Zambia | 103.82 | 11.8 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Saint Lucia | 103.89 | 11.1 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Cyprus | 103.94 | 10.6 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Serbia | 103.95 | 10.5 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Grenada | 103.96 | 10.4 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| United Arab Emirates | 103.99 | 10.1 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Belarus | 104.01 | 9.9 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Liberia | 104.02 | 9.8 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Albania | 104.05 | 9.5 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Brunei | 104.05 | 9.5 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Nigeria | 104.06 | 9.4 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 104.06 | 9.4 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Azerbaijan | 104.07 | 9.3 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Russia | 104.1 | 9 | Expansion | BCI | Lite |
| Burundi | 104.11 | 8.9 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Somalia | 104.11 | 8.9 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Laos | 104.13 | 8.7 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Guinea-Bissau | 104.15 | 8.5 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Chad | 104.2 | 8 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Madagascar | 104.2 | 8 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Bangladesh | 104.22 | 7.8 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Paraguay | 104.25 | 7.5 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Sierra Leone | 104.29 | 7.1 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Singapore | 104.39 | 6.1 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Angola | 104.42 | 5.8 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Kenya | 104.72 | 2.8 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Samoa | 104.75 | 2.5 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Burkina Faso | 104.8 | 2 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Mauritius | 104.93 | 0.7 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Dominican Republic | 104.95 | 0.5 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Mali | 104.99 | 0.1 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Armenia | 105.9 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Aruba | 106.81 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Benin | 107.45 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Cape Verde | 107.24 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Cambodia | 105.98 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| DR Congo | 106.13 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 106.02 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Curaçao | 105.03 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Djibouti | 106.98 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Ethiopia | 107.61 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Gambia | 105.55 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Georgia | 109.68 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Ghana | 105.59 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Guinea | 105.35 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Guyana | 143.82 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Kazakhstan | 105 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Kiribati | 105.27 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Kyrgyzstan | 109.04 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Macau | 107.85 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Malaysia | 105.11 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Malta | 106.8 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Mauritania | 106.31 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Monaco | 108.51 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Mongolia | 105.12 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Niger | 110.3 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Philippines | 105.69 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Rwanda | 108.89 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Senegal | 106.06 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Sri Lanka | 105.01 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Tajikistan | 108.4 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Tanzania | 105.53 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Togo | 106.53 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Turkmenistan | 106.3 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Uganda | 106.06 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Uzbekistan | 106.5 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Venezuela | 105.3 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
| Vietnam | 107.09 | 0 | Expansion | GDP | Lite |
About the Global Risk Map
The Global Economic Risk Map visualises economic contraction risk for 50+ countries using data from the OECD and the World Bank. Each country is colour-coded on a green-to-red scale reflecting its current position in the business cycle.
OECD member states are scored using Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), Business Confidence Indicators (BCI), or Consumer Confidence Indicators (CCI), all normalised so that 100 = long-term trend. A reading below 100 signals slowing momentum; sustained readings below 98 indicate elevated contraction risk. Non-OECD countries use World Bank GDP growth data converted to the same scale for comparability.
Countries marked Full Dashboard have comprehensive crash probability analysis using up to 14 economic indicators. Click any of these countries to access the full dashboard with historical timelines, indicator deep-dives, and pre-crash comparisons.
Data updates monthly after the OECD publishes new leading-indicator releases, typically with a one-to-two month lag. The map is for informational purposes only. See our methodology and disclaimer for details.
Full Dashboard Countries
More Tools
- Crash Risk Dashboard: detailed crash probability analysis with 14 indicators.
- Compare Countries: side-by-side crash probability for up to three markets.
- Pre-Crash Analysis: compare today’s readings to conditions before historical crashes.