Insights
Understanding the Indicators Behind Market Crashes
← Back to DashboardCrash Gauge tracks up to 14 economic and valuation indicators to estimate market crash probability. These articles explain the key indicators we monitor, how they work, and what history teaches us about reading the signs of economic stress.
What Is the Yield Curve and Why Does It Predict Recessions?
The yield curve is one of the most reliable recession indicators in economic history. Learn how it works, why inversions matter, and how Crash Gauge tracks it.
Understanding the CAPE Ratio: A Historical Perspective
The Shiller CAPE ratio has been used for over a century to assess whether stock markets are overvalued. Learn what it measures and its track record.
Market Crash History: Lessons from 2000, 2008, and 2020
A look back at three major market crashes of the 21st century: what caused them, what indicators warned us, and what investors can learn.
What Are Credit Spreads and What Do They Tell Us About Risk?
Credit spreads measure the gap between corporate and government bond yields. When they widen, it often signals growing fear in financial markets.
Understanding the VIX: Wall Street's Fear Index Explained
The VIX measures expected market volatility and is often called the "fear index." Learn how it works and what spikes in the VIX mean for investors.
Why Understanding Economic Indicators Matters
Economic indicators are the vital signs of a country's financial health. Just as a doctor monitors heart rate, blood pressure, and temperature to assess a patient, economists and investors track metrics like the yield curve, credit spreads, and the VIX to gauge the health of an economy. When multiple indicators flash warning signs simultaneously, the risk of a significant market downturn increases.
At Crash Gauge, we believe that informed investors make better decisions. These articles are written to help you understand what each indicator measures, why it matters, and how it fits into the broader picture of market crash probability. Whether you're a seasoned analyst or a curious beginner, our goal is to make these complex economic concepts accessible and practical.
Explore Our Tools
- Crash Risk Dashboard: live crash probability with up to 14 indicators.
- Global Economic Risk Map: OECD data for 50+ countries.
- Compare Countries: side-by-side analysis for up to three markets.
- Methodology: how we calculate crash probability.