About Crash Gauge

What is Crash Gauge?

Crash Gauge is a free, open-access dashboard that estimates market crash probability for 9 regions worldwide (the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada, Australia, and the Developed World aggregate) using 14 economic and valuation indicators.

The goal is simple: give everyday investors and researchers a single, at-a-glance view of how current economic conditions compare to historical norms, and whether those conditions resemble the lead-up to past market downturns.

How It Works

Each indicator (yield curve spreads, credit spreads, unemployment trends, consumer confidence, and more) is ranked against its own historical distribution to produce a percentile score. These percentiles are combined into a weighted composite, amplified when multiple indicators cluster in extreme territory, and compressed through a sigmoid function to produce a final crash probability between 0% and 100%.

For the full technical breakdown, see the Methodology page.

Data Sources

All data is sourced from publicly available, reputable institutions:

Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED): the primary source for US and international economic series.
OECD: composite leading indicators and confidence surveys for member countries.
Robert Shiller (Yale University): cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE).

Data is refreshed automatically via a Cloudflare Worker proxy and cached locally in your browser for performance. No API keys or accounts are required on your end.

Open & Transparent

No paywalls, subscriptions, or premium tiers.
No user accounts or registration required.
No first-party tracking or analytics.
Built for educational and informational purposes.

Crash Gauge is not financial advice. It is a data visualisation tool. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Who Built This

Crash Gauge was built by a private investor who wanted a straightforward, data-driven way to assess market crash risk before making investment decisions. Unable to find a free tool that combined multiple economic indicators into a single, at-a-glance reading, they built one and made it available to everyone.

The project is not backed by a financial institution or advisory firm. It is an independent, self-funded tool built for transparency and public benefit.

Contact

Questions, feedback, or data corrections? Reach out at contact@crashgauge.com.