Compare Country Crash Risk Side by Side

About the Comparison Tool

The Compare Countries tool lets you place up to three markets side by side using the same set of economic indicators and time horizon. Each country’s crash probability is calculated independently using the shared indicator subset; only indicators available in all selected countries are included so the comparison is apples-to-apples.

For each market the composite score reflects the weighted average of percentile ranks across indicators such as yield-curve spread, credit spreads, unemployment trends, PMI, and consumer confidence. The non-linear extreme-clustering amplifier is applied per country, so a market where multiple indicators are simultaneously at extreme levels will show a disproportionately higher reading.

Use the period selector to switch between 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and full-history baselines. A shorter baseline captures recent volatility more aggressively; a longer baseline provides more stable percentiles. The indicator selector lets you focus on specific categories (valuation, rates, economic, sentiment, monetary).

This tool is for informational and educational purposes only. See our methodology and disclaimer for full details.

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More Tools

• Crash Risk Dashboard: detailed single-country crash probability with up to 14 indicators.
• Global Economic Risk Map: OECD leading-indicator data for 50+ countries.
• Pre-Crash Analysis: compare today’s readings to conditions before historical crashes.