United States Pre-Crash Analysis: Historical Comparison
| Indicator | Sep 2000 Dot-com Crash | Dec 2007 Great Recession | Feb 2020 COVID-19 Crash | Today Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | ||||
| CAPE(ratio) | 43.8 | 27.3 | 31.1 | 39.8 |
| Buffett Ind.(%) | 142.00% | 108.00% | 152.00% | 230340.37% |
| Rates & Credit | ||||
| Yield Curve(%) | -0.30% | 0.16% | 0.07% | 0.65% |
| Credit Spread(%) | 1.72% | 1.35% | 1.08% | 0.68% |
| CB Rate(%) | 6.50% | 4.25% | 1.58% | 3.64% |
| Economic | ||||
| Unemployment(%) | 3.90% | 5.00% | 3.50% | 4.40% |
| PMI(index) | 49.7 | 48.4 | 50.1 | 5.2 |
| LEI(index) | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 101 |
| Housing Starts(%) | -8.40% | -38.00% | 35.00% | -7.27% |
| CPI(%) | 3.50% | 4.10% | 2.30% | 2.39% |
| Sentiment | ||||
| Consumer Conf.(index) | 101 | 99.7 | 101 | 60.7 |
| Fin. Stress(index) | 0.1 | 0.6 | -0.6 | -0.6 |
| Monetary | ||||
| M2 Growth(%) | 6.20% | 5.80% | 6.80% | 4.29% |
| Other | ||||
| Debt/GDP(%) | 56.00% | 64.00% | 107.00% | 122.31% |
About the United States Pre-Crash Analysis
This tool compares today’s United States economic indicator readings with the values recorded in the months before major historical market crashes. Each indicator is ranked against its full history to produce a risk percentile, then colour-coded from green (low risk) to red (extreme risk).
The summary cards at the top show how many of today’s indicators fall into the same risk zone as each pre-crash period. A high match count does not guarantee a crash will occur; it indicates that current conditions share statistical similarities with a prior stress period.
Historical crash events included vary by country. For the United States the comparison covers the Dot-Com Bubble (2000), the Global Financial Crisis (2007–08), and the COVID-19 shock (2020). Other countries include regionally relevant events where sufficient indicator data is available.
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. Past indicator patterns do not guarantee future outcomes. See our methodology and disclaimer for full details.
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